Tajikistan’s economic growth is projected to remain robust in 2025 and 2026, supported by investment in energy and industry, strong consumer demand, and private sector development, according to the latest forecast by the Asian Development Bank (ADB). The growth, however, could be further boosted by a renewed focus on digital transformation and e-governance.
The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to expand by 7.4% this year and 6.8% in 2026 after registering 8.4% growth in 2024, according to the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) April 2025, ADB’s flagship economic publication. Inflation is projected to rise to an estimated 5.0% this year and 5.8% next year on increased consumer lending and rises in public worker salaries, pensions, and utility tariffs.
“We applaud the government for prioritizing digital transformation to drive development”, said ADB Country Director for Tajikistan Ko Sakamoto. “We look forward to supporting the government in overcoming key barriers, including the lack of sufficient investment.”
The country’s high mobile penetration rate is undercut by slow mobile internet speed, ranked 139th globally. The number of digital wallets reached 10.4 million in mid-2024, contributing to a 16.2% increase year-on-year in cashless transactions, but the adoption of digital payments remains uneven.
ADO April 2025 calls for Tajikistan to establish robust and agile digital public infrastructure, which is essential for efficient and inclusive delivery of public services to all population groups. By harnessing digital technologies across both public and private sectors, Tajikistan has the potential to transform its industry, enhance quality of life, and promote sustainable development.
The growth forecasts were finalized prior to the 2 April announcement of new tariffs by the US administration, so the baseline projections only reflect tariffs that were in place previously. However, ADO April 2025 does feature an analysis of how higher tariffs may affect growth in Asia and the Pacific.
