Climate action offers Tajikistan an opportunity to rejuvenate its economy and create jobs while protecting its people from the growing risks of extreme weather events induced by climate change, says the World Bank Group’s Tajikistan Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR), released on November 7.
“Tajikistan is in urgent need of an economic reset that can help address its many development challenges as well as significant and increasing impacts of climate change that are threatening future progress,” said Ozan Sevimli, World Bank Group Country Manager for Tajikistan. “The CCDR provides an actionable pathway to accelerate the transition to a green economy and catalyze long-term growth prospects.”
The report finds that mobilizing private finance, to complement limited public resources, will be key to the success of the green transition to achieve water, food, and energy security; low-carbon development that could boost exports and create jobs; and protect the vulnerable through effective climate strategies.
“Although Tajikistan ranks 130th in global greenhouse gas emissions with a minimal contribution, it is recognized as one of the world’s most vulnerable countries to climate change. The CCDR offers recommendations for the Government of Tajikistan on enhancing production efficiency, promoting innovative technologies, and creating ‘green’ jobs, all while reducing the country’s vulnerability to climate change impacts,” noted Bahodur Sheralizoda, Chair of the Environmental Protection Committee under the Government of Tajikistan.
The country is already at high risk of floods, earthquakes, and landslides. Climate change-related damages to infrastructure, livestock productivity, and agriculture could reduce real GDP by 5-6% by 2050. Climate-induced impacts in the strategic Vakhsh River Basin, where 90% of the country’s electricity is generated, epitomize the climate and development challenges of Tajikistan. The annual average costs of land degradation in Tajikistan are estimated at nearly $325 million, a cost that is only expected to rise. In addition, air pollution is rife, accounting for 84 deaths per 100,000, which is the second highest in Central Asia.
There are considerable benefits to be reaped from a green transition. Reductions in health care costs from reduced air pollution, road accidents, and road damage are estimated to exceed US$3.5 billion by 2050. Investment in renewable energy (hydro, solar, and geothermal) and energy efficiency have the potential to generate new employment opportunities.
Significant investments will be needed for the climate mitigation and adaptation agenda. It is estimated that Tajikistan would require around $17 billion on top of the investments for the ambitious reform agenda of the government with investment needs of $79 billion during 2025–2050. A large share of investments could come from the private sector, particularly in the energy, industry and agriculture sectors, but improvements to the business regulatory environment, opening up the economy and leveling the playing field for better competition are required to unlock private capital.
Financial requirements for transformational development far exceed Tajikistan’s domestic financing capacity. To supplement domestic efforts, Tajikistan needs substantial technical and financial support from external sources, including grants and concessional loans from international financial organizations, global climate funds, and other development partners.
