The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has published its Macroeconomic Outlook, summarizing a preliminary overview of economic developments in the Bank’s six member states — Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan — in 2024, along with key macroeconomic projections for 2025, as well as for 2026 and 2027.
EDB analysts estimate that GDP growth in the Bank’s region of operations would be 2.9% in 2025.
Kazakhstan’s GDP growth would accelerate to 5.5% in 2025. Positive factors that are expected to ensure high growth rates throughout the forecast period include expansionary fiscal policies, lower interest rates, increased oil production, and government programs aimed at regional development and infrastructure construction.
EDB analysts forecast that the economies of Russia and Belarus will maintain high growth rates in 2025 – at the levels of 2.4% and 2.6%, respectively. In Russia, economic expansion would be supported by fiscal stimulus and growth in exports to China. In Belarus, the key growth drivers would be stronger demand from Russia and high consumption.
Strong domestic demand and robust exports are expected to ensure that Armenia, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan enjoy economic growth above the global average. In the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan, manufacturing is projected to grow faster than GDP, with strong investment activity. GDP growth in 2025 would be 5.5% in Armenia, 8.7% in the Kyrgyz Republic, and 8.4% in Tajikistan.
EDB analysts expect inflation to gradually approach target levels in the countries of the region. Aggregate consumer price growth would slow from 7.9% in 2024 to 6.4% in 2025. High interest rates would continue to dampen inflation, which is forecast at 6.5% in Russia and 7.3% in Kazakhstan. In Armenia, inflation is projected to increase to the lower end of the target range (4+/-1.5%), reaching 3.1%. In Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, price growth is forecast within targeted levels, with inflation by the end of 2025 at 5.0% and 5.8%, respectively.
