The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has released its Macroeconomic Outlook for its six member states. According to the report, in 2024 Armenia’s GDP is expected to grow by 7.5%, Belarus’s by 3.4%, Kazakhstan’s by 5%, Kyrgyzstan’s by 5.5%, Russia’s by 3%, and Tajikistan’s by 8%.
For most EDB member countries, the outlook has been upgraded due to strong early-year performance and continued robust utilization of domestic growth sources.
In Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, high growth rates in early 2024, driven by strong domestic demand and increased exports of basic metals, have led to upgraded GDP growth projections for 2024: 7.5% for Armenia, 5.5% for Kyrgyzstan, and 8% for Tajikistan.
Kazakhstan’s economy is expected to maintain a high GDP growth rate of around 5% in 2024. Government efforts to diversify the economy are anticipated to catalyze and sustain a steady GDP growth rate in the medium term.
Russia’s GDP growth forecast for 2024 has been improved to 3%. EDB analysts note that domestic demand has expanded further, driven by high household incomes and fiscal stimuli. However, consumer activity is expected to gradually decline over the forecast period due to tight monetary policy.
Belarus’s GDP growth forecast for 2024 has been upgraded to 3.4%, supported by continued strong growth in demand from Russia and wage increases.
EDB researchers expect inflation in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan may drop below target levels, while Russia and Kazakhstan continue to face increased inflationary pressures. Bank analysts project that inflation rates will gradually approach targets in 2024: 1.5% in Armenia, 6% in Belarus, 8.3% in Kazakhstan, 4.3% in Kyrgyzstan, 5.8% in Russia, and 4.1% in Tajikistan.
